Archive for May, 2009

Market psychology - Bank of America needs more capital - rally the stock!

Wednesday, May 6th, 2009

How does this happen?  The same basic information released in February would have been a 4% down day in the market and tout tv (cnbc) would have been in the “financial markets are in turmoil” camp all day.  This time however, it is different.  Why?  Because the market is in a corrective rally and no much can stop it and set it straight until its good and ready.  This corrective rally can last weeks or months, but most likely won’t venture past 1007 on the S&P500 index.  Too late to jump in to the long side and too early to go short.  Stay away for now.   How do we know the market will correct?  Just as the last short is chased out of the market, just as the sentiment reaches the highs, just as you begin to believe the “all clear” message has been sent, that’s when they open the trap door, a big news item will set things the other way and a new but familiar discussion will ensue.  Stay tuned.