It seems as though the market continues to plow forward and make new highs almost every day. The real story underneath the covers is that most major markets are not following along and in fact the majority of Dow stocks are not even following.
Today is a good example of light volume, higher highs and then the market went to sleep for most of the day. You wouldn’t know it by listening to the “don’t worry, be happy” crew on CNBC. They were once again as jolly as can be and maintain that we are in a new bull market for some time to come. This may be true, but don’t take their word for it, they know almost less than nothing. How can you listen to someone who says, “next we’re going to tell you how to trade the Walmart earning announcement.” Not good. They would rather turn all the viewers into addicted traders than an investing community.
Take the Fast Money crew. While a couple of those guys seem to know their stuff and most likely make money trading the markets, the majority of the rotating panel is clueless when it comes to any aspect of the market.
Enough of the soap box and on to more important items such as a sneak peak at some important forecasting items.
Major Stock Indices - It looks as though we are going to make it all the way to the 50% retracement of the first down leg of the bear market which falls about 1130 give or take. The magic bullet will be whether or not we see a meaningful correction and a powerful last gasp rally or just a continued push higher, then ……….
Bond Market - Higher rates, lower prices to follow for the next severl months. Not Fed Induced higher rates, simply market performance at the longer end of the curve, like where mortgage rates are bench-marked from.
Currencies - The best long term play in the world. Only our subscribers know where we stand on this one.
Oil - Another run at 100 or not. We see both scenarios playing out, the question is which one first…..
Gold - More upside, but there is a stopping point, more in time than price.
Until next time.